In the past three months, the situation has become clear. Apple and Dell have accelerated the "de-Chinaization" of the supply chain. The window period is about 2-3 years, which has become an open secret.
This is a microcosm of the anti-globalization trend and a reflection of the future world pattern. It seems to be just the industry dynamics of consumer electronics, but it is actually a big event that concerns everyone.
At the beginning of December, TSMC expanded its chip factory in Arizona, USA. I wrote an article "Semiconductor Highland War: China, the United States and South Korea are the protagonists of the future. TSMC has turned into "US Semiconductors"?" In fact, TSMC is also actively deploying German factories , Japanese factories, through intercontinental distribution of chip factories, to reduce the risk of disruption of the global supply chain caused by geopolitics.
Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, warned: "Globalization and free trade are almost dead."
The United States is launching a chip war against China. In 2019, TSMC was banned from producing chips for Huawei, and many top Chinese semiconductor companies were included in the "entity list" of export control, trying to organize and stifle the rising semiconductor industry. In this list, there are not only technology leaders like Huawei, but also many outstanding companies in the industrial chain such as Yangtze River Storage and Cambrian.
From the Russo-Ukraine War to high-end smart manufacturing, we have a clearer understanding of the global trend: "Globalization is dead, a new normal of two worlds is forming, the United States is pressing every step of the way, and China has no way out." At the same time, The confrontation between China and the United States has already been staged. It is not a hot war, but a cold war, a technological war, and an economic war. The chip war is a battle of national destiny between China and the United States.
Small chip, big world, semiconductor is the battle of national destiny
In the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia began to have the upper hand. Later, Ukraine got advanced Western weapons, and the war situation changed. Traditional weapons are very fragile in the face of digital weapons. UAVs have become the sweet pastry in the Russia-Ukraine war. From enemy detection to artillery navigation, UAVs have changed the competitiveness of both sides on the battlefield. It is an indisputable fact that Russia's chip capabilities lag far behind those of Europe and the United States, leading to a lag in the competitiveness of conventional weapons.
On the other side of the ocean, the United States is promoting the application and research of artificial intelligence in weapon systems. The decisive point of war in the future battlefield may be artificial intelligence. Once artificial intelligence is applied on a large scale in the weapon system, it will subvert the balance of forces on the battlefield. The super-long-distance and super-accurate scanning and aiming capabilities, super-accurate, multi-target strike capabilities at the same time will turn the battlefield into a robot battlefield. become very fragile.
Regardless of war or civilian use, small chips have become key strategic assets and strategic capabilities. American companies such as Intel, Qualcomm, AMD, and NVDIA are in an absolute leading position. This is the technological highland of the United States. They do not want The ability to design and manufacture advanced chips falls to China, a future competitor.
TSMC from Taiwan, China, is the world's leading chip manufacturing company and the only super player. However, there are a lot of American technologies in the wafer manufacturing process such as lithography machines. In desperation, they dare not produce for Huawei. The Kirin chip makes Huawei HiSilicon, which has top-notch chip design capabilities, feel like a thorn in its throat.
The United States has comprehensively suppressed China's top leading semiconductor companies, intending to prevent China from surpassing the United States in the high-tech field to maintain its superpower supremacy, and China will not be able to produce high-end advanced process chips overnight in a short period of time.
At present, the semiconductor war, especially the chip war, has become a real national destiny war, not a hot war in the old days, but a top-level technological war, which determines the future strategic dominance among countries and the right to survive the industrial chain.
Why did the United States strangle Huawei?
In recent days, American politicians have started clamoring to further suppress Huawei, banning Huawei in the supply of chips such as 4G PCs. Obviously, the Americans want to punish Huawei to death. Fortunately, Qualcomm clarified at the financial report meeting recently that it will not stop Huawei. 4G chips and other chips supply.
So, why do Americans hold on to Huawei?
The United States' suppression of Huawei is not to suppress Huawei, but to suppress the entire top technology industry chain of semiconductors and communications in China. Huawei is the strongest chain owner of China's semiconductor industry chain. Huawei is a super enterprise that has mastered a large number of top high-tech technologies such as 5G microwaves and chips. In the field of communications, 5G technology integrates microwave technology, achieving the world's number one, and holds the most 5G technology patents; in terms of terminals, it once rushed to the top The world's largest mobile phone sales company and a successful high-end mobile phone company; it is at the top level in the world in terms of computing technology, smart photovoltaics, and chip design.
The U.S.’s stranglehold on Huawei is a technological war that has been brewing for many years. It is not something like Iran, including the house arrest of Meng Wanzhou. It started when I served as the US government's science and technology adviser.
Huawei has mastered the most advanced 5G technology and holds a large number of core patents, and 5G+AI is the core technology of a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution, which allows China to occupy a leading position in the new round of technological competition such as 5G Internet of Everything and Industrial Internet. This is the last thing the United States likes to see.
Americans only want to import some daily necessities from China to solve their inflation, and do not want to import high-tech products from China, because in their economic strategic framework: the United States exports high-tech products and controls the industrial chain. Core profits and control rights, I only hope that China will do some labor-intensive assembly, low-level software outsourcing and other work.
However, Huawei broke the plan of the United States. It not only leads in 5G technology, but also performs well in high-end smartphones. It also uses a large number of local components in China, which drives the rapid development of China's semiconductor industry chain. This is the last thing the United States wants to see. .
The United States would rather see Chinese companies purchasing American components to build high-end mobile phones than see high-end mobile phones built by China’s local supply chain. Therefore, the United States also suppressed Huawei in the mobile phone chip supply chain that does not involve national security at all. It hit Huawei's industrial chain brotherhood.
Dell and Apple no longer cover up and accelerate the "de-Chinaization" of the supply chain
Many years ago, the American chip giant Intel reopened the chip foundry business to strengthen the domestic wafer manufacturing capabilities in the United States.
Since that day, the United States has been quietly promoting the "supply chain localization" of high-tech companies. From the perspective of supply chain security, there is nothing wrong with it. Later, it made no secret of it and threw the technology war to the foreground.
Under the pressure of the United States, TSMC and Samsung have established chip factories in the United States. In addition, Intel, which has resumed its foundry business, has made great efforts in the localization of chip manufacturing.
At the market level, the Nikkei Chinese website reported that Dell has started the de-sinicization of its supply chain, and will no longer use chips produced locally in China, and mentioned the time node of 2024.
Apple, which has made huge profits in China, is also promoting the "de-Sinicization" of the supply chain. The time point is about the next 3-5 years. At the same time, Apple is increasing orders from factories in India and Vietnam to make India an iPhone. Global Manufacturing Center.
Some local Chinese Apple supply chain companies have begun to set up factories in India and Vietnam, and foundries such as Hon Hai have also been required to transfer production capacity. What does this mean?
American companies want to earn money from Chinese consumers, but there is no way not to listen to the words of the US government. In addition to the 2025 Taiwan Strait issue that the US continues to play up, most well-known US technology companies are deploying distributed supply chains to avoid Sino-US disputes and conflicts. Confrontational impact.
Of course, Apple currently has a relatively close relationship with its Chinese supply chain partners. Most iPhones are assembled in Chinese factories, such as Hon Hai, Luxshare Precision, etc. It is relatively difficult to relocate complex production lines to India. However, Apple has strengthened the construction of highly automated factories in the United States, which cannot be ignored.
Under the new international situation of "globalization is dead", it is understandable for Apple to relocate the manufacturing of products sent to the United States. This part of the market may be 20-25% of Apple's.
At the same time, it is still unknown whether Apple will quietly reduce the precision chips or components produced in China like Dell did. It depends on how much pressure the US government puts on Apple.
In terms of PCs, there are Huawei, Lenovo, Honor, Xiaomi, Acer and ASUS from Taiwan in China. Chinese consumers can choose Chinese brands. Huawei and Honor are actually a technical thinking system and a new force in PC. Lenovo is currently the world's No. 1 in terms of sales. one.
In terms of mobile phones, under extremely difficult circumstances, Huawei has actually achieved the number one position in the Chinese market for folding screen mobile phones, and is far ahead; in candy bar mobile phones, especially high-end products, domestic brands still need to work hard, and no domestic brand can do it yet. At the height of Huawei back then, the Huawei mate series has returned, but it will not be able to return to its peak in the short term.
At present, among mobile phone brands, Huawei mobile phones still maintain the highest domestic production rate of components, and vivo oppo is strengthening chip design. There is a high probability that the United States will continue to be stuck with Huawei chips, but it will not set up obstacles for the foundry of vivo oppo chips. At least for now, there seems to be no reason.
In the nano-war of lithography machines, what level is Chinese manufacturing at?
In recent years, with the confrontation between China and the United States and the suppression of Huawei by the United States, lithography machines, a very professional equipment, have come into the public eye. The level of lithography machines directly determines the level of chip manufacturing and is also the ultimate technical contest.
So, what is the level of wafer manufacturing in China, and what is the level of Chinese lithography machines?
At present, the highest level of wafer manufacturing in mainland China is SMIC, which can achieve 14nm, or can be stacked to achieve 7nm. However, these systems with American technology cannot produce chips for Huawei, but it does not hinder the production of chips for enterprises. Produce chips.
Judging from the public information, the DUV product precision of the lithography machine developed by Shanghai Microelectronics is 28nm, and there is no mass production on the market. It may be mass produced by the end of the year. Of course, problems such as the yield rate must be solved, depending on the product quality and level. No, this external cannot be concluded by guesswork.
In the last month, there is another news that Huawei will launch a 5G mobile phone with a high probability in 2023. It should not be the P series or Mate series, but it is likely to be placed in the nova series. If this news is true, then, everyone, please wait patiently.
In November 2022, a new Huawei patent on "mirror, lithography device and its control method" was exposed, indicating that Huawei is already working on lithography machine-related technologies. According to my understanding of Huawei, they were suppressed by American politics and suffered such a big loss. They will definitely solve the problem from the root cause. No matter how difficult it is, Huawei will also charge forward.
Of course, the lithography machine is very complicated. It is said that there are 100,000 parts, which is quite scary. However, Chinese people do not need to belittle themselves. The Chinese have done the super-difficult and big projects such as aircraft carriers, space stations in space, and landing on the moon from the back. It is only a matter of time before the lithography machine can be done.
Harbin Institute of Technology and Changchun Institute of Optics and Mechanics have been researching technologies related to lithography machines, and have also obtained many key light source technologies. China is not weak in optical technology, so there is no need to worry about this technical point.
There is a high probability that Huawei Hisilicon is developing lithography machines. Of course, it is impossible for Huawei to develop all the technologies by itself. It must be a joint research and development of many scientific research institutions and enterprises, but it will not be announced at this stage unless there are key major breakthroughs.
Mainland China has purchased a lot of lithography machines, mainly DUV, and now the localization of photoresist is accelerating, because the shelf life is short, and it is impossible to stock up in large quantities, and photoresist is even more stuck than lithography machines. Of course, companies in the domestic photoresist field are also working hard to innovate, and it is expected that there will be a large number of domestic photoresists for production line verification in 2023.
Self-reliance in science and technology, not only relying on research and development, but the support of the public is the key
Under the tide of anti-globalization, technological self-reliance has become the core proposition of national development. The chip war is just the tip of the iceberg, and at the same time, it is also the most critical war.
Of course, self-reliance in science and technology is not only a matter of scientific research institutions and enterprises, but also concerns each of us. After all, Guotai Minan is one. So, can each public individual help?
able!
Under the market economy, technological innovation must get feedback from the market in order to form a positive cycle. Otherwise, no matter how good the technology is, it may become a bottomless investment pit.
Whether it is a PC or a mobile phone, based on the excellent product experience, it is recommended that you buy more domestic products. Only high-quality domestic products that support technological innovation can make the industrial chain rotate, form a positive ecological cycle, and get rid of being stuck by the United States at every turn. The state of the neck.
In recent years, Huawei's mobile phones, PCs, watches, TVs, etc. have done well, which has greatly stimulated domestic supply chain companies and formed the phenomenon of "Huawei concept stocks". BOE has made breakthroughs in high-end display screens, and has become the high-end screen option of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers... There are many such stories, and they are still happening.
When looking at folding screen mobile phones, there are two that do the best in the world, Samsung in the global market, and Huawei in the Chinese market.
Enterprises create good products and consumers support them, so enterprises can survive and work, and do better and better.
In the past, people always talked about the patriotic label of Huawei mobile phones, and some even said that it was emotional kidnapping. However, Huawei really relied on the quality of its products, making it easy for people to buy once and trust them all the time. Not patriotic.
Now, the United States is launching a technological war. ZTE did not stand up and quickly compromised. However, Huawei stubbornly resisted. Even though Ren Zhengfei's biological daughter Meng Wanzhou was placed under house arrest by the United States for three years, Huawei did not surrender or compromise.
To be honest, we would like to thank Huawei. Huawei has withstood the fire of the Americans and bought precious time for the localization of our high-tech industry. Just imagine, if Huawei, the leading technology company in China, was knocked down soon, we might have to make a huge compromise to the Americans.
It is everyone's freedom to choose their favorite products. I just hope that Chinese people will believe in some domestic products more, at least treat them as equals and without prejudice. We cannot be blindly arrogant, nor should we underestimate ourselves. The hardest-working Chinese are worthy of all beauty and respect.
In the past fifty years, among the major countries in the world, only China has not launched a foreign war, and no one loves peace more than the Chinese. A peaceful, free, and equal free trade world also needs the backing of national strength, unity, and self-reliance in science and technology to achieve neck freedom. Only with neck freedom can you see the panoramic world.